Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Contradictions

Ever since starting to trade Forex and learning the relationships between the pairs, I have tried to understand the concept of making multiple trades that, on the surface, may seem contradictory. Right now I am short the Sterling/Greenback...which is obviously positive for the Dollar. This is a Bob Iaccino (Trader Outlook) trade.

At the same time, Forex 360 today entered a long CAD/YEN trade today. Their trade is a lot more of a medium term trade then the above, BUT, their stop is right below where it is trading now. Based on the 4 Hour chart, I wouldn't have made the trade here.

Anyway, who am I?...These guys know a lot more about Forex then I do, and this trade suggests that the initial bias is long (according to them)...and therefore contradictory to the above trade. Traders would go long on this pair if they were shifting funds away from the Dollar.
I found this explanation (from learningmarkets.com) to be very interesting:

International trade currencies: These currencies are heavily influenced by changes in global demand for raw materials (commodities) and finished goods. A few of them—the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD)—are often referred to as the “commodity currencies.” Currently, the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD) also have very high target interest rates in their economies and are therefore also very sensitive to changes in the forces behind capital flows, such as interest rates, the credit market and yields.

Capital flow currencies: These currencies are heavily influenced by changes in demand for investments including equities, bonds and interest bearing investments. The U.S. dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF) are the primary capital-flow currencies because the markets represented by these currencies have the strongest and most active banking and financial sectors in the world.

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