Misguided concern

The other day I commented on Trichet's news conference. Briefly, I just felt that Trichet was more concerned with image then anything actually real. Sort of reminds me of the equity markets right now. The rise we are having is based on nothing more then rhetoric and hope.

So I am reading my MarketNews headlines today and I discover that the Obama administration is not the only (unqualified) official to talk about the behavior of the markets...Check out Trichet's market analysis in this short newspiece I uploaded in pdf format.

This could be a Yen thing!

In the last post, I thought that the CAD/YEN'S chart looked appetizing simply because of the technical look to it. Below is a chart of the Sterling/YEN...

Very inner-esting (gotta love those triangles!):



Now the news out of merry olde England has been much better lately. Whether that lasts is a different story. There are some serious news events scheduled for this week out of the UK, but judging by the chart, it looks like investors are happy with the Sterling...OR are they just UNHAPPY with the Yen?

Take a look at the Euro/Yen chart. This 4 Hour chart closed at it's high and broke significant resistance dating back 6 months. (I have to believe that the treasury department of the Japanese government would like nothing better then to see this trend continue.)



My trade triangles don't tell me anything about the Yen spot, but just like the CAD/YEN, this bullish bowl formation exists on a few of the Yen crosses.

Very Bullish formation

The Canadian Dollar/Yen (CAD/YEN) is a great medium term trade here. It's the kind of thing that this trader wouldn't be able to let run because it would correct the whole way up! But...if you have a relative with some extra money to invest...you could do a lot worse...I mean, just look at this chart!

This is what it looked like yesterday morning when we were getting ready to go seriously long (4/2) (Clicking on the charts give you clearer views):

Fundamentally, Japan is going to have issues. We've already seen the Yen creamed by all the other crosses. So pick a target...enter a generous trailing stop...and wait a little.

Respecting Trendlines

Remember the trendline we identified in the EUR/USD chart two posts ago, I shorted the pair for a scalp trade, because of the Doji star that appeared right under it.

Below is the same chart...this time breached. When I saw it trade through the line (it was very innocent and gradual), I didn't go long, because I am short a lot of it.

Decision time again...

This morning was the first time I had heard that some of the G 20 participants were going to be selling some of their gold reserves. My decision from the other day is getting better and better, now that we are at major support. I own five put contracts for a significant profit...

...and now, I have to decide if I buy more, because it could be a long fall from here. (Clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

More EUR/USD

There are definitely charts (and analysts) that show both breakdowns and breakouts for the EURO/USD next week. You guys know what I thought of Trichet's performance yesterday, and I don't think this thing has anywhere to go but down, based strictly on fundamental stuff.

I just shorted another 1/2 lot right below the trendline. Now, we may get some tests of yesterday's highs...but right now, it is overbought:

A good option is options

It has been so difficult to figure out the trend in gold. So a few days ago, I bought puts on my holdings. Also, we ended up buying five contracts, not two. Below are the updated prices of the puts, including the May 900's, which I bought at $18.50

What's next for the S+P 500?

I have said it over and over again...that without the gentleman in this video, my account would probably only be up 25-30% or so. For all my trades, I use about six indicators...my trusty trade triangles being one of them.

However, they are my FIRST line of defense...they show me the trend...so if I do make a trade against that trend, I am aware of that fact. There's always going to be buying into weakness or shorting into strength...but the triangles keep you focused.

Here's what Adam thinks about equities from here on in...you'll get a kick out of how he thinks.

New account numbers...and rising!

Here is an update of my main Forex account. On it's own, this $100,000 account is up almost 65% since Jan 8. My other ($50,000) account is up 18% (Excel).

One of the biggest reasons for this account's success is behind the link under this sentence.

Alright! (Having a plan does work.)

OK...so that turned out to be a good hedge. Also, the initial reaction to the (anti-climatic) NFP numbers was to drive the Euro/US back up to yesterday's levels, BUT, as Kathy Lien suggested it would yesterday, they have come down again and seem to be weakening. I am at my highest profits of the year...in both accounts. P.S. I think the equities may sell off now that the news is out.

Stay tuned for the new statement. Also, I am so glad I bought those gold puts the other day.

P.S.

The hedge I have in place (to my EUR/USD) are longs in EUR/JPY (and still long US/YEN.)

Hedge

This from Larry Levin (or Levin the Knowledgeable):

Today's (yesterday) dollar/oil move shows just how vulnerable we are to oil spikes if the US dollar plummets because of Washington's insane spending. At one point today the dollar was down 1% and oil was up almost $4, which is fairly normal for a 1% move in the dollar. To be sure, there are other factors that affect the price of oil but dollar weakness is one of the important factors. Because oil is priced globally in dollars, sharp moves in the dollar changes the price even if demand doesn't change.

So, one way to play the number at 8:30...as a hedge...might be to take some of your profits and buy longer term (at least 2 months out) Oil calls or, for income, sell puts

Fascinating times

I really can't sleep! The big unemployment report comes out tomorrow...I have a few open trades...and I'm studying charts which is fun (geek) as hell!

Anyway, as I always say, it's important to study the equity markets to get a sense of what commodities and currencies will do. So, being the technician that I am, I posted this excellent (and understandable) description of the S+P levels to watch (pdf)...good stuff from CitiFX in there too.

Below is a good chart of the SDS ETF. I like it because it is an opposite trading instrument i.e. when equities go down, the SDS rises. It's also great for taking advantage of shorting with margin, without actually taking the equivalent risk associated with shorting with margin, in that it's weighted three times the actual volatility of the NYSE or S+P internals.

Anyway, if this breaks, the markets could continue up...looks like significantly. I just don't see it yet...I still think this is a bear market rally and the more people I see on CNBC rattling on about how we have put in a bottom...the more terrified I get.

My accounts are doing great...but being wrong is part of trading. We'll see. It would probably help my Eur/USD position if I was right. Lets see what NFP is tomorrow morning.

New record for the account

Here is an update of my main Forex account. On it's own, this $100,000 account is up almost 60% since Jan 8. My other ($50,000) account is up 18% (Excel). Looking to get back in, as per the chart with my Fibonacci lines. As you can see, when you go to my account, I've been trading this for two days!



One of the main reasons I am doing so great is behind the little "tools for the trader" link below. Guys this tool is invaluable and free (for 30 days.)

Trading while we wait for Euro/USD correct a little

As you can see by the statement, we are at 57%, just in this account (since Jan 8). The last few days, a good part of that profit has been buying and shorting in this really pretty range we are in. (Clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

...AND THERE IS STILL TIME to take advantage of this...while I wait for the Euro trade to correct. Here is a pattern that started forming yesterday...also very bullish.

If you're short the Euro/Greeny pair

Kathy Lien pretty much summarizes what I said right after Trichet's news conference. She also had an interesting add on point; that the reason for this pair's rise was only because of trader's adjusting to price levels affected by a 25 basis point cut and not 50 BP.

Anyway the pair is very overvalued according to the charts, and because of this silly game Trichet just played, it's also very high. It actually makes sense to short more.

Trading Update...including Gold

A few days ago, I bought puts on my gold holdings and that seems to have been a good idea. They were purchased with profits made from my Zion Bank short a while ago. Obviously, they are doing quite well as Gold has been pounded (but still within $892 oz. support.) Exact figures later.

Meanwhile on the currency front, I traded against the Yen like a crazy fool and made a lot of money...however, and a big however, I still am short 4 lots Euro/Yen and down big, even though they will recover...see analysis later. Here is the updated statement. Again at an all time high. (I am also up about $3700 on my puts.)

Update

Well, I have to admit I am surprised that traders are letting Trichet get away with not answering the quantitative easing questions. It just seems that he is more concerned about the confidence Europe's people have in what he says, then being transparent in how they plan on fixing the economy...so he stays vague (hawkish) and the markets like that so far.

As for me...I will hold my shorts and make this an intermediate play, because I think this is a short term in the Euro/US...

I also just took a very large position in the Dollar/Yen, because traders are showing a serious base here (based on bids versus offers at this price.)

25 Basis Points

Big spike up in the Euro/US when the ECB announced only a 25 bp cut, but...it's back! The pair is now waiting for Trichet to talk. Also we have our own domestic numbers coming out at 8:30...Stay tuned...

Here is the link for the LIVE press conference: http://www.thomson-webcast.net/de/dispatching/?ecb_090402_stream_video

Like a security blanket!

When I take a side on a trade that has the potential to really be affected by a news event, sometimes I will stay up late looking for supporting viewpoints or evidence...ouch!

This is a CNBC interview done early in the week with an analyst who feels (real or dovish) news, after the actual expected rate cut, will come out. His opinion is basically that they may have no choice. I did short more Euro at 1.3270.

This video is good if you like this sort of thing...it definitely fascinates me...but most other traders I know are 100% technical. Technical analysis is easily more important then fundamental, however I think you really need to have a good knowledge of the news, and eventually you will begin to associate price levels with actual items coming out of peoples' mouths.

Euro update

Well...when you break a trendline...you have to look for a reason. Is this a fakeout, a rumor like we had the other day with US/YEN, or...

The line that I drew a couple of hours ago has sufficiently been corrupted. Now...I still hold my shorts here and I may short more. If I decide that this move is something more, I, obviously, will close all positions---but I don't think it is. We'll see.

I have an updated statement here...still at around 62% combined for both accounts. Here is my main trading account with some additional small profitable US/Yen trades.

Additional notes on last post

One of the good explanations for being at the middle Bollinger Band could be like we are playing 'Tug 'O' War...you know...where the white tape on the rope is in neutral territory for a while, before the winning team pulls the rope, and the opponent with it.

This pair is in that neutral territory. So, I copied the following, because it is a brief and effective way to describe where we are (from Forex.com). This pair is preparing for tomorrow morning's rate cut decision, and the Trichet conference afterwards:

Commentary: The European Central Bank is expected to cut its target interest rate to 1.00% from 1.50% on Thursday, April 2nd, at 1145GMT. The forecast is a bit contentious, with some economists looking for a less aggressive -25 basis points cut while a minority actually see the ECB standing pat on rates. We think the overwhelming likelihood is that the bank does the full -50 basis points, in an effort to not be perceived as being even further behind the curve. If the bank cuts as expected, the main focus will once again be on the press conference at 1230GMT.

ECB President Trichet provided little in the way of a preview when he testified before the European Parliament Economic Committee earlier this week. However, there is speculation that the bank will announce some form of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting and market participants will be keenly watching for this. Indications are that the bank will extend the terms of loans to major eurozone banks and that they may buy corporate debt to ease strains on firms facing difficulties in securing credit. ECB members alluded to some of these measures last week when they mentioned the possible purchase of private debt.

Ultimately, it could well end up being a lose/lose situation for EUR. If the ECB does announce some form of balance sheet expansion, the EUR is likely to come under renewed pressure on the notion that the bank is now printing money. We would expect the negative EUR reaction to mirror the downbeat reaction in USD when the Fed announced their quantitative easing initiative a few weeks ago. If the ECB fails to announce measures beyond a rate cut, the market is likely to exact punishment on the EUR just as well. Traders will probably view the unwillingness to act on this front as a prescription for an even weaker economy going forward.

Trading Strategy: The overall strategy remains to sell EUR on strength rather than buy it on dips. If the ECB cuts rates by the expected -50 basis points and indicates that aggressive quantitative easing is on the horizon, we would expect EUR to head markedly lower. The latest hourly consolidation in EUR/USD can be approached in a couple of ways - as a pennant consolidation or a symmetric triangle consolidation. The former would project EUR/USD down to 1.2700 eventually, while the latter points to a more modest correction to 1.3000/1.2970. The break level comes in by 1.3180 for both patterns. If the ECB does not announce quantitative easing, the move lower could stall into the 1.3110/00 zone. Moves higher, meanwhile, should find a good barrier into the 1.3280/90 and 1.3340/50 zones.

Contrarian case for the EUR/USD

After further study...I think it's worth noting the following two charts Euro/Greeny and the Greenback spot, which show off one of my favorite indicators, Bollinger Bands...

It's usually at the middle line that you will see a 'decision' made...either it continues towards the opposite line it came from OR it reverses. (Clicking on the charts give you clearer views):

Notice where the last bar ends up on both charts.

So we are at a definite turning point for both. Both RSI lines are at 50%...so just be careful. The trend is down for this pair...but it will be interesting to note what equities will do tomorrow. I showed the double trendlines on the longer term chart...and here is a decent trendline going back to Tuesday morning:

The G-20

In case there is someone that doesn't know who makes up the G-20 (I didn't) here they are:

The G20 comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, the US, and the European Union, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the ECB.

Good US/Yen chart

This is a 5 day, 10 minute chart from DailyFX...has the same price movement that we have been talking about, but a different technical pattern...I know from sight, but I'm just learning terminology...is this a 'Pennant' flag?...(definitely bullish.)

EUR/US revisited...part 3

This is what I wrote around March 21st about the Euro/US. Those trendlines have held quite admirably. I was so adamant about this and then, because we have the whole world to watch, I stopped thinking about this pair, and just traded it short term from time to time. But, this pair is a good intermediate short with a generous stop. Short term...I'll have to see. I just shorted a small position (thanks Robin for the heads up!)

More on the US/YEN trading

This relates to the US/YEN trading range I put up below. Notice what it says about bids and where they are placed.

12:51 04/01 DOLLAR-YEN: Seeing some chop as pair legs down to Y98.65 before returning with a Y98.75 bid, the pair seeming to take direction from a still soggy euro-yen and euro in general. Flow light however with dollar bids in place still below Y98.40 area that underpinned morning dip.

Interesting view of the EUR/US

I've had a question about Euro/US...and I won't have my opinion until after equities close. BUT...this is from Market News Int...which I highly recommend people get.

Here's another look...

I just shorted a small position, since we are in this very cool range.

New US/Yen info

Russell (of UMT) is another one my 'indicators.' And he was one of the factors in all my successful USD/YEN trades yesterday. I just closed another position for a $90.00 profit.

Today, he talked further about these trades, and here is a great picture of what all of us did last night...and what we can STILL DO! Take a look. (Clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

US/YEN to roll (I think!)...PART 2

Our indicators are still showing that this pair is due for another nice rise. The charts just plain look good. The problem is, I am an intra-day trader and I don't see any pickup in volume yet. For intermediate traders, this is a perfect buy here. My trade triangles have given me permission!

A perfect reason to use technical analysis first

Yesterday, New Zealand became the next country to consider quant. easing...and I'm just not going to take it any more! They were supposed to be the lone holdout...I even wrote that they were going to buck the trend. But what really gets me, is that I saw New Zealand's news conference, and that was just 3 weeks ago.

Using the spot's weaknesses to your advantage

Yesterday, it just looked like the Yen (against the Dolllar) was waiting for someone to tell it what to do. So I traded it back and forth. These will be in the overall statement from yesterday: (I had to split it up into 2 images.)

G-20 on CNBC

Squawk on the Street talking about the G-20 meeting yesterday.

Buying Puts

Back in February I shorted Zion Bank and made a significant profit. So, because the Bollinger Bands on Gold are narrow, and Gold is in an intermediate downtrend...I am going to use those profits to buy some puts on it, in case this big meeting coming up carries with it some event risk. If Gold flies, I lose some of the move's profit. If Gold sinks more, I will sell some of my puts for a (perceived) profit.

Just bought 2 May 900 Puts of COMEX Gold for $370.00 (plus commissions)...this will hedge my Gold for a little while.

In and out of two more US/Yen trades

Out of all positions, except Gold...however I may be investing some of the account's profits in protective Gold puts found here. I find this can be very helpful if I look at things like..."I'd be willing to take less profit to avoid an excessive drawdown in my account, even if a deterioration in Gold is only temporary (which it would be.)"

Two more profitable US/YEN trades have again increased the account's profit to an all time high. Part of the reason is the link below.

More on tomorrow's numbers

I keep thinking that the numbers are going to be better then everybody thinks, based solely on the occasional surprise earnings numbers we have been seeing lately. The last two ISM announcements have beaten expectations. But then I saw this from my MarketNews wire:

...(referring to the U.S.) Declines underway in the present situation index point squarely at deep job contraction, according to Lynn Franco, head of the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey. The present situation index fell 8 tenths to 21.5 in March, its eighth straight decline and on its way, according to Franco, to the teens and levels last seen in the early 80s.

This is a trade anybody can do...if you can think quickly!

I absoloutely love this Euro/US trade for tomorrow morning.

Minor news will start at 7:30 with the Challenger Job Cuts y/y, which announces the change in the number of job cuts announced by employers. But the big ones start after eight (ADP employment change number, and later, the big ISM manufacturing number.) Here's a great way to play this.

Something I don't have yet is access to market depth information...which would add to the probability of success...and David Song discusses that here too.

Very important news item from Japan

This from Japan a little while ago. Traders bid up the Yen a little but I think the USD/YEN is ready to make another move...I bought 2 lots again:

BOJ March Tankan Large Manufacturer Index At Record Low -58 20:08 EDT / Mar

31TOKYO (MNI) - Business confidence in most sectors for both current
and future conditions deteriorated sharply to a record low in March due
to the deepening economic slump here and overseas and the continued
strains in global financial markets, according to the Bank of Japan's
latest quarterly March Tankan corporate sentiment survey released on
Wednesday.

The Tankan survey headline index -- showing current business
sentiment among large manufacturers -- plunged to -58 in March, down
sharply from -24 in the previous survey in December. The index worsened
for the fifth consecutive quarter, with the March reading exceeding
the previous record low level of -57 seen in May 1975.

The index was in negative territory for the third consecutive
quarter.

The Tankan showed that Japanese companies, regardless of size, have
suffered from a slump in consumer spending and profits.

Exporting manufacturers were especially hard-hit, as the foreign
environment worsened further. The continued economic downturn overseas
is making such manufacturers much more cautious about their business
plans than three months ago.

On the bright side, the survey showed that the headline sentiment
index is expected to improve slightly to -51 in the next survey in June.

The benchmark March figure was lower than most analysts expected.
The median of forecasts by economists had expected the index to fall to
-52, with estimates ranging from -40 to -60.

The Tankan diffusion index represents the difference between the
number of companies reporting favorable business conditions and those
reporting unfavorable ones.

The Tankan results, as widely expected, suggest that corporate
executives remain cautious about their capital spending plans in the new
fiscal year on the back of the continued global economic slump.

That view among major manufacturers, key drivers of sustained
growth in Japan, indicates that the nation's economy will likely remain
weak this fiscal year to March 2010.

The Tankan survey was conducted from Feb. 23 to March 31.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

New Record Account Balance

Closed out losing CAD/YEN trade...BUT also closed out all my US/YEN positions for a significant profit....right before it came down. I will look for a good re-entry point.
Here is my updated account balance, which I'm pretty sure I topped (I got to stop looking at it day to day...and just do my job.)

So, combined accounts are up about 62% since December/January.

US/YEN to roll (I think!)

Russell, one of the 'indicators' I use issued this:

The Yen single currency has been weak all day. This may be the beginning of the push to 100.00 and above.

I agree, because of how weak the Yen looks and a couple of other extremely good indicators, I bought a 4 Lot position...One of my favorite indicators is my trusty trade triangles software, which also issued an UP triangle on the pair (US/YEN) today...that's why I increased my lot size.

However, I am still short my CAD/YEN trade (1 Lot @78.29). My stop is 78.54...

Trade Updates

Sold my Euro/Yen long position for a loss...and never got in to the US/JPY position. Yen is showing some strength across the board, even though it seems that all the currencies are showing some intermediate strength against it. I could have held my Euro, but, it would have gone from a short trade to a longer one, and it wasn't worth holding.

It looks like the equity markets are still showing strength, which is why I took a contrarian trade and shorted the Canadian Dollar against the Yen. There is no way I can see the Yen continually getting killed without a little breather...(and I also got a significant short term signal to do it as well.)

Interesting Yen commentary

Getting down triangles issued all over the place against the YEN. And now this:

15:36 03/31 JAPAN: (correct) The BOJ's quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment is set for release Wednesday. The Tankan results may be grim enough to prompt BOJ policymakers to lower their growth forecasts and reassess their standard scenario that Japan's economy will begin to recover in the latter half of fiscal 2009. The benchmark diffusion index by major manufacturers is expected to have worsened to -52 in March from -24 at the December Tankan survey, down for the 5th consecutive survey, according to the average forecast by economists polled. Such a result would put the index near the record low of -57 hit in May 1975. A MNI insight story Monday said some BOJ board members were worried about a "Tankan shock," i.e. the possibility that the finders will be so bad as to speak a sell-off in the Tokyo stock market and seriously hurt assets at many commercial banks.

So, I am buying separate Lots of Euro/Yen and US/Yen here...markets closed decently.

EUR/US revisited

We just crossed the 200 day MA on the 15 minute chart of the EUR/USD. We also crossed the 200 day MA of the daily at around 1:15. So, even though there is serious event risk surrounding this move, I just went long a little. The fact that a senior ECB official said that they would probably be easing a couple of days ago...this could be a "selling on the news" type thing...we'll see.

Japanese Currency ETF looking bearish

Here is an addendum to my last post...M Club just issued a new down triangle for an ETF I like to watch, the CURRENCY SHRS JAPAN ETF (PACF:FXY). We now have 4 or 5 confirmations to an even weaker Yen then we already have...

• The Yen has already shown major weakness to all the crosses.


• The equities are again looking strong today...and if yesterday just turns out to be profit taking, all the Yen crosses will rise with them.


• We were issued a weekly down triangle on the Yen spot today.


• The Japanese fiscal year is now officially over, and that could mean some movement as the pressure is off Japanese companies (for now) not meeting their predicted numbers, based on yesterday's fiscal closing price. Seems there may be additional profits for some of these companies.
  
• This chart below of one of the biggest currency ETF's:

Three new (and successful) trades

Combined account results are at an all time high here and here after two mini Gold trades and EUR/JPY long trade (which is on a serious uptrend.)

--------------

Strange chart from M Club, issuing a new weekly down triangle on the Yen spot. What makes this unusual, is the lack of price movement, however, it is a new weekly triangle AND we are at a low point of that period of time. Also note, that the Yen has been buried the past few days:

2 price levels for possible trades

1.31543 on the EUR/JPY and notice the pennant flag on the Greeny/Yen. 98.82 is an important price level right above the flag.

Good idea...Just no execution.

I thought that the Dollar was due to sell off a little against the Swissy. So my new software requires me to set a stop to short a half a contract of the US/Swissy at a price that it considers to be indicative of a downtrend. So what happens...? In the middle of the night it gaps down, past my stop, and therefore, I did not hit...oh well.

The weird part is that I couldn't find any news that would be indicative of a sudden dump like that...I mean, it's 2 in the morning there and late evening here...can't be much event risk.

New Trade

Looking at a small short position in The Greeny/Swissy at 1.1477...I have set a stop. Looks like this may hit and I will see how this trade works out. I am working on a live video of the trade if my stop hits.

New down triangle was issued for the DOW

Yesterday, I wrote that I wouldn't be surprised if M Club issued a new down trade triangle. We just got one.

The Dollar, gained big against the Canadian Dollar today and yesterday, I wrote that the USD/CAD chart showed this would be inevitable. Is technical analysis more important then fundamental analysis? The very essence of Elliot Waves suggest that price and news have no correlation...which is scary, if true. (The secret is the link below...hint, hint.)

Respect the Hanging Man

One of the reasons I sold my profitable Gold trade (still holding the rest) was because of the Japanese Hanging Man (fifth bar to the left...927.80) that appeared below (clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

Learning to NOT trade

It's been a busy and lucrative day...so I have learned over the years to sometimes NOT trade until the next day.

I just sold my recent Gold contract for a $200 profit...still holding a little USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and the other 2 Lots of Gold. My combined accounts are at an all time high...stay tuned for updated statements. We are looking at about 60% since Jan 8.

New Euro Fibonacci line to note

A couple of Fibonacci levels identified (by Russell)...1.31270 in Euro/USD and 1.27200 in Euro/Yen. have been identified. See if we can short into strength again.

More trades

Many open and profitable trades open...looks like cable and the Euro are traveling together. Please don't forget that these are all short termers (except Gold) BUT it's my Trusty Trade Triangles that are my trendsetters...

Uh, Oh ECB!

So much for the ECB not considering quantitative easing! All of a sudden...Gold is recovering well...because of this?

09:41 03/30 ECB VIEW:

Recent remarks by ECB officials have the market pricing in a 50 bp cut in the refi rate and "the chance of the ECB adopting or announcing some form of conventional Quantitative Easing (QE) (such as the purchases of corporate credit) by the ECB this Thursday," say strategists at Barclays Capital. Their Economics team looks for the refito be cut by 50bps (to 1.0%) and for the deposit rate to be cut 25 bps to 0.25%) and "do not rule out the ECB announcing an extension of the maturity of its longer-term refinancing operations to 9 and 12 months ro the possibility of making purchases of corporate credit." With the market leanings towards a QE announcement, failure to implement QE could see "some reversal of the euro's recent decline," the strategists say.

New trade setups

Looking for big panic short-covering spike on Euro/US so I can reshort. What's great about a trade like that, is you are shorting into temporary strength and can, therefore, use a TIGHTER STOP. Looking at US/Yen trade here also.

Profits, baby!

Updated Statement here. Holding Gold, however doing great with everything else. Equities could be ugly.

Interesting things are being indicated here

All the Yen crosses were down overnight. People are taking their money and going into Greenback and Yen...SP futures down 25 (it's going to be ugly.)

Looking for cable or Euro/US short. Interesting that the only currency that was holding its own against the Yen was the Dollar...now that is weakening. Remember I had a stop to buy the cross...but it never hit. ("Just placed a buy stop to buy 2 Lots US/Yen at 98.82. Penetrating 98.80 is bullish.")

My trades are going well. Please look for update soon.