The trading plan SAVED THE DAY!

I was getting a little worried...I saw the weakness in the S+P and felt that it looked weak, that it would only retrace 38% and then go back down the other way...

BUT we had the final 4H bar in the GBP/USD acting very strongly...looking like it would close above 1.64935...thus becoming a Trader Outlook trade...and now we had a built in contrary trade to what I thought would happen in the last paragraph.

That trade would have meant a weak Dollar, which equity markets like. I may have felt compelled to make that trade because Trader Outlook is so good at these intermediate trades.

BUT... here's what happened. The closing bar's of the S+P (daily) and GBP/USD (4H) both fizzled out.

Clicking on the charts give you clearer views):

AND

Notice the long upper wicks on both final bars. On the GBP/USD, we closed below Trader Outlook's signal entry point, and on the S+P, we saw too many offers at prices above 38% retracement level. To the novice, getting in early to the trade may have been tempting....I mean it was looking awful good (at one point it was at 1.6534.) We had a target point of 1.6615 and someone may not want to have missed it and jumped right in...

"I'm gonna be rich."

But, you see, the trading plan worked. I didn't enter because I didn't veer from the plan (no trade until the 4H bar is officially closed.) Now, obviously, if the market has another 200 point up day on Monday, this will be all for naught!

(Don't see that happening...)

Possible interesting development

As some of you know, we have opened up a separate account for Trader Outlook trades. I want to compare how his intermediate trades work (which have been great so far) so the only trades that will be made there will be the ones his traders make.

The other trades that I make are in different accounts because I am allowing for a much wider use of other techniques...

Our most recent intraday high on the S+P was 956.21 reached on June 11th.

At one point we had a 38% retracement from the subsequent low of 903.76. But if we close here, we could be in trouble... However, we also have a trade recommendation from Trader Outlook to go long GBP/USD if we get a close above 1.6493 on the 4H, which is contrary to my analysis.

38% retracement on the S+P?

It will be interesting to watch how equities close on the daily chart. I am, and have been bearish here...if we stop at 38%, that could be more evidence of further erosion next week. (Clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

The outcome here will have significant connections to the trades we are still watching.

Trade Limbo!

In case you were watching...NONE of the trades from the last post went off today. To me this is the way to trade. Yes, I'll scalp occasionally, but trading with A PLAN is so much more comforting...much less stress, and it avoids the trap of trading too much just to be part of the action.

I am learning about Bob Iaccino's Forex strategies...and it has definitely complimented what I have been doing already. You can try it $7 for seven days...that's what I did...and thankfully, it was a good decision.

New trades I am watching

We are watching 4 trades right now...none have been made yet and depend on price:

1. EUR/GBP: Long if we get a close on the 4H above 0.8573

2. GBP/USD: Short if we get a close on the 4H below 1.6208

3. AUD/USD: Short if we get a close on the 4H below 0.7826

4. USD/CAD: Short if we get a close on the 4H below 1.12206

The thing I like to do here is analyze these from an independent indicator. Market Club is excellent for being a checks and balances indicator. I will use this for these trades.

Did anybody see the clever post-production work CNBC did to the taped interview with Obama?

Let's just put it this way...if you're an insect, AIG, anybody who gets in his way... LOOK OUT! This is teriffic. (I am still searching for the animated version with the corporate logos flying around him.)

Account updates for all accounts

My main Forex account is up about 72% since the beginning of January. I sold my Gold in the 960's and repurchased it at around 951 and it is in the new account at the bottom.

My intermediate Forex account, which is up 25% since January, including some new trades this month (Zip file.)

My options and equity account, which are titled in my children's names, so I can only recreate the trades.

Here are the account particulars:
--My Sprint trade (which I closed at around 13% profit)
--My Zion Bank trade. (26% profit)
--The Gold puts purchased to protect my long term gold position have expired with a $3000 loss.
--The Puts I bought (and sold) to protect my gold, the first time around. ($11,000 profit)
---My S+P puts which expired worthless with a loss of $3,100. I am considering buying them again. Obviously, I should have gone out to July or August.

AND Trader Outlook. Looking pretty ugly after some losses in the last couple of days, but it will start to turn around because of the trading system that Bob Iaccino uses.

Out of trade

Out of second half of trade with a $30 profit (total $300). I am now watching the US/Yen for a possible short...stay tuned.

Trade Update

Out of half US/CAD (+$270). Will wait on other half...moved S/Loss up to breakeven.

Lookout below......!

I have a feeling this is the beginning of what I have been calling for for a while now...A CORRECTION in equities...and so does Market Club. Watch this video, and I think you will agree.

Remember the converging resistance trendlines we discussed over a week ago? Now watch this.

MISC.

If we close below 927 on the 4 Hour Gold Chart...I am going to repurchase PUTS on it because a significant trendline will have been broken.

-------------
10:25 a.m.

Continuing Trade Analysis

9:56

Euro DOWN weekly chart

Interesting that Market Club just issued a new DOWN WEEKLY triangle on the Euro Spot. That is a big deal. Daily triangles change all the time...but weeklies are usually spot on.

When you use MClub, you get this in your mailbox:

MarketClub Smart Scan Alert for EC.Y$$ Weekly Trade Triangles EURO FX Cash (CME_EC.Y$$) is trading at 1.3827 -0.0016 (-0.12%) and has triggered a new LOW for a Red Weekly Trade Triangle.
EC.Y$$ Streaming Chart

EC.Y$$ Chart Analysis Details
http://www.ino.com/info/191/CD3603/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=8

EC.Y$$ Chart Analysis Details
http://www.ino.com/info/191/CD3603/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=8

Trade analysis

Many of Trader Outlook's trades go negative first...that's the nature of trades that occur using a 4 hour chart. So I am going to do a stage by stage analysis of this, so you can see how it works. Green is where we went long.

9:37 a.m.

Details

Trade details:
Profit target @114.67
S/L @ 112.88

$ Vs.Canada

We just went long $/Canada @ 1.1375...stay tuned for details.

Account updates for all accounts

Thanks to traders like Adam in the video from the last post, my accounts are doing extremely well.

Important Gold Update

As most of you know, I sold all my Gold for a considerable profit because I knew that we were going to get some sort of correction. Remember, the main reason to have Gold is to protect the portfolio in case of an unforseen event...so I went and bought it back. Just like last time I owned it, it is down...but it doesn't matter.

A number of our readers however DO trade Gold. And three weeks before the most recent push in Gold, Adam told us it was going to happen. Now that you are reminded, take a look at a snapshot from his newest video (clicking on the image gives you a clearer view):

Now you can take a look at his new video on Gold. That's right, one of the main contributors to this account's success...Adam and Market Club.

Trade Updates

Here is the what happened in the EUR/USD since my last chart (clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

Yesterday, I mentioned that we were at decision time with regards to the Euro/US. That decision was obviously made, so we traded accordingly. The first shorts you will see on the statement were scalps based on the break of the trendline I drew.

The latter ones are thanks to Trader Outlook. First look at the trade setup page that Bob gave us. He specifically said that his traders would be shorting the EUR/US at the triangle breakout, a break of 1.3981: (click on image)

The other trade they said they were going to do was go long the US/CAD if it closed above 1.1289 on the 4 hour chart (which it did):

Statements based on above trades here and here (pdf). We will do overall statement in a little...

Nakatomi Towers

Check out this interesting story from Larry Levin (and he's right...I haven't heard this reported anywhere.) It's not exactly like our government tells us everything that they're doing! But if this crazy story is true, you gotta wonder WHAT IS GOING ON:

Intrigue. Espionage. Police. International thieves? Bearer Bonds! Now, if someone had said "Come out to the coast, we'll get together, have a few laughs" I would have thought the following happened at Nakatomi Towers in the movie Die Hard, but it happened in real life - and in Italy.

In the movie Die Hard, a group of international terrorists/thieves crash a Christmas party in one of the towers at Nakatomi Plaza. Their goal is to steal a large amount of money locked in a vault. The money, however, is not in the form of greenbacks but bearer bonds. A bearer bond is a debt security issued by a corporation, or by a government. It differs from the more common types of investment securities in that it is usually unregistered - no records are kept of the owner, or the transactions involving ownership. Whoever physically holds the paper on which the bond is issued owns the instrument, thus the name BEARER bond. This is useful for investors who wish to retain anonymity. The downside is that in the event of loss or theft, bearer bonds are extremely difficult to recover because whoever holds them - owns them.

In the movie, the bad guys were clearly delineated and were after a $640-million booty. In the recent real life event, we don't yet know all of the characters (and probably never will); the bad guys are not clearly delineated and were in possession of a staggering $134.5-BILLION of bearer bonds.

According to Asia News, Italy's financial police (Guardia italiana di Finanza) has seized US bonds worth US 134.5 billion from two Japanese nationals at Chiasso (40 km from Milan) on the border between Italy and Switzerland. They include 249 US Federal Reserve bonds worth US$ 500 million each, plus ten Kennedy bonds and other US government securities worth a billion dollar each.

"Italian authorities have not yet determined whether they are real or fake, but if they are real the attempt to take them into Switzerland would be the largest financial smuggling operation in history; if they are fake, the matter would be even more mind-boggling because the quality of the counterfeit work is such that the fake bonds are undistinguishable from the real ones.

"What caught the policemen's attention were the billion dollar securities. Such a large denomination is not available in regular financial and banking markets. Only states handle such amounts of money.

"The question now is who could or would counterfeit or smuggle these non-negotiable bonds..."

This sure sounds like a huge financial story to me. Why hasn't the mainstream press in the US reported on it? It's either the largest counterfeiting scam in history, which is a big story; or it is real, which makes it even more important. Is the US government killing the story?

Soon after the European police and press investigated the bust, German newspapers began reporting that the $134.5-billion bearer bonds are, in fact, real.

The problem for the US is that US bearer bonds have not been issues by the Treasury sine 1982. Umm, what? Then where the hell did these securities come from? Are they being issued by the Treasury without the knowledge of Congress? Golly gee, Treasury wouldn't act on its own accord - would it? Well, come to think of it, Treasury has been acting as if it can do whatever it wants: forcing shotgun corporate marriages, demanding & receiving TARP, breaking the Constitution daily - why wouldn't Treasury issue bearer bonds without public knowledge?

But why would it do such a thing? It's not as if the US is in a financial bind is it? Oh wait, yes it is. Therefore, the nefarious motivations of Treasury are endless.

There was a "shadow banking" system run by Wall Street for years - why not a "shadow public debt" system? Is the Treasury spending additional sums of money beyond what the lemmings are being told by the White House and Congress? Is it CIA cash?

Or was it something else? What may just be a coincidence, yet odd nonetheless, is the EXACT amount of money seized: $134.5-billion. How much money is left in the TARP slush fund? It was recently reported in the Wall Street Journal as, umm, $134.5-billion. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123828522318566241.html

WASHINGTON - "The Treasury Department said it has about $134.5 billion left in its financial-rescue fund, giving the Obama administration a cushion as it implements expensive programs aimed at unlocking credit markets and boosting ailing industries."

And this money was headed for Switzerland. What's in Switzerland besides good chocolate and great watches? Banking! I am not a believer in conspiracy theories but this could surely fuel the PPT crowd. Was the money going to a Swiss bank account run by the US government to buy securities to drive the Dow to 10,000? Or was this money needed to cover purchases already used to engineer the current rally? If so, what happens now that the money has been confiscated?

I think the only one who can get to the bottom of this mess is John McClain and I want to hear him say "Yippee-ki-yay, m**f**ker" one last time.

First EUR/US chart...DECISION TIME!

In this 4 hour chart, the 10 day (yellow), 21 (white) and 55's (red) EMA's are basically having a business meeting at 1.40! (Clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

And in this Market Club chart dating back to April 19, I see bounces up and down this trendline:

The Euro

I am looking forward to the Trader Outlook seminar tomorrow morning because I'm curious if their technical analysis determines that the Euro is a short here.

Fundamentally, for an economy that depends mostly on exports, it doesn't help to have a currency that is very expensive compared to the currency of the country that they need to trade with. The numbers are showing that Europe's recovery from this recession will seriously lag behind everybody else, and much of that can be attributed to the strong Euro. This means that the ECB is going to have to get involved by shorting the Euro or buying other currencies against it (which is essentially the same thing.)

Technical analysis upcoming.

p.s. Trader Outlook has a cool deal where you can try it seven days for seven dollars to see if it is right for you.