Thursday, June 4, 2009

US/CAD

The fundamental side of the two US/CAD trades that I made (from Kathy Lien):

Despite weaker economic data and a warning about the damaging impact of Canadian dollar strength, the loonie has recovered nearly 50 percent of its losses against the U.S. dollar. The strength of CAD is due to the combination of U.S. dollar weakness and oil prices, which soared to a 7 month high today. The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent and made no comment about their Quantitative Easing program. However they did say that "If the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the Canadian dollar (which reflects a combination of higher commodity prices and generalized weakness in the U.S. currency) proves persistent, it could fully offset these positive factors." The BoC is growing increasingly concerned about the outlook for the CAD and if the currency continues to rise, they could decide to initiate Quantitative Easing. Meanwhile IVEY dipped back into contractionary territory while building permits fell 5.4 percent. Interestingly enough the employment component of IVEY PMI increased which suggests that tomorrowbs employment report could beat expectations.

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