Gold down

Looks like gold may be coming down to the 892 area. I am still bullish on gold...thus the reason I got out of my short $15 ago!

$100,000 account is up 50% since Jan 2. No take on currencies yet...except the Sterling has broken big support.

Excellent parody on the disgust we are having as a nation with our banks and government in general...Very funny! (warning, bad language)

Candlestick Signal

If you are wondering what the equities will do tomorrow, the last bar on today's daily chart of the S+P is not the most bullish indicator in the world.



I think I will look for the weakest currency against the Greenback to short tomorrow...unless I do a yen, ozzie or nzd trade...which would be tonight.

Looks like the US/CAD pair is getting tight...

We may be close to a big decision point for the US/Canadian Dollar. I am guessing about three weeks. Our 2 trend lines meet at 1.2916 in this daily chart (clicking on both charts gives you a clearer view):

Here's the weekly, which is much longer term, but it too looks toppy:

The Canadian Dollar is one of the risk appetite currencies. If the dollar does decline against it in the next couple of weeks, it could signify that equities will continue it's rise here...even though I think it is just a bear mkt. rally. I doubt highly that we are not going to retest the lows we made a couple of weeks ago.

On the news front, it is quite likely that the mark-to-market rule will be changed. If this happens, banks and insurance companies will be allowed to determine the value of its toxic assets (which have no market now) based on how they feel the assets will perform in the future. This could be quite bullish for equities, even though we will have less transparency and more unknowns...which is what got this economy in trouble in the first place.

Gold and the dollar

I have traded the Euro/USD a few times today with some decent profit. Unnecessary loss in gold. I said that I thought it would start the week taking profits. But, I decided that being short gold, even if only for a trade, was silly, given the strength in equities and weakness in the dollar.

Still Rolling along

Took a lot of profit on my EURO/Yen positions (and rebuilt the equity in my account.) Still long a small piece of EURO/Yen in case, because I expect the weekly breakout we talked about the other day.

I will say it until I am blue in the face, try the trade triangles for free. They are one of the big reasons that I am doing so well.

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Gold will be ok...but it looks I was right about this profit-taking.

The Subjective Opposite Point of View

A good (subjective) opposite point of view. This was written in oilngold.com:

SNB's action (quantative easing and intervening in the currency) is positive for gold as Swiss franc was treated as safe haven. With the franc's depreciation, one more shelter disappears and it raises the appeal for gold. Moreover, SNB's aggressive stance increases speculation that other central banks, especially those with virtually zero interest rates -US, Japan and the UK, will engage more in quantitative easing measures.

The dollar's retreat was also positive for gold. Last week, the dollar index slid 3 out of 5 days to close at 87.25. Against the euro, the greenback lost 2% to settle at 1.2927. We expect the gold will strengthen further next week as the FED will likely announce more easing policies in the FOMC meeting next Tuesday. Dollar's weakness was also brought about by increase in inflation expectation (as shown by the chart '10-year TIPS breakeven rate' below) and China's worries on the safety of US T-bonds.

Looks like this gold push could be short-lived

I want to start using the ADX in my trading a litle more. As I am setting this up for my Gold chart, I noticed something very interesting about it. It indicates a lack of interest in the current up move (a negative divergence), similar to the way a MACD works. For this particular picture I recommend actually clicking on it for the closeup. It gives you a much better visual:



We have the RSI above 50 which is bullish, but...do you see the trendline? I think it is important to note that you can have all the things in the world pointing you towards a possible long or short position...but if there is no uumph...no conviction behind it...you will probably just move sideways or the opposite way you wanted originally. Then it will be anybody's guess where you go from there. This is what the ADX will do for you.

Now I'm pretty sure I've never read anywhere where you are supposed to use the ADX in this manner, but it sure makes sense. Let's see what happens to Gold in the first few hours.

Triangles have SAVED me (he says dramatically!)

Below is a chart of the Greenback with the triangles I always talk about. There's been so much volatility in the specific crosses in the last month that the dailys have been a little confused, sometimes issuing opposing directional triangles three times in a week! This is not normally what happens, and the triangles cover all the markets, obviously including equities, which are not subject to the whipsaws we've seen in Forex.

The spot currency, however, has been 'spot' on. Here is one example:

This DX daily triangle was issued a couple of days before it's big drop. I used the channel we have been discussing in previous posts as my confirmation and traded accordingly. The triangles for the other spots have been been very good too. Even the Ozzie was correct, which because of its yield, has been rising (and is a risk sentiment currency known to move w/the equities.)

A Weekly Chart of the EUR/Yen

Do we see a break of EUR/Yen resistance here? I think I will keep on the lookout for any Japanese (official) hints about being unhappy with the Yen strength.



I have gone long on this pair because the charts look bullish and MC has an UP triangle in place for it. Notice the correlation between the top Bollinger Band and the trendline I drew.

Bollinger revisted

The last time the Bollinger Bands were narrow, we had a big move.

Now they are narrowing again. The way Bollinger Bands work is, whenever this happens, there is usually a breakout. So going into this weekend, we should prepare for something next week. Sunday night, Bernanke is on 60 minutes...what could that mean for the Greenback? Remember the Dollar's break of that channel?

Stay tuned for my direction prediction! (Note: watch how equities finish the day.)

Nextel coming back

On March 10 I bought a couple thousand shares of Sprint Nextel in my equity account at $3.55. Now, as many of you know, I am a big Market Club fan and its trade triangle technology; the main premise being that you start on the outside (monthly indicators) and work your way in (weekly and daily.)

Obviously this is not Forex, but trade triangles are the reason for this account's success. Below is the chart with today's new issuance of a MONTHLY trade triangle, a couple of days after I bought it. You guys have to try this out for free.

New Gold video (versus the Greenback)

Here's a new gold video with a trade and how it relates to the dollar.