Sunday, March 15, 2009

The Subjective Opposite Point of View

A good (subjective) opposite point of view. This was written in oilngold.com:

SNB's action (quantative easing and intervening in the currency) is positive for gold as Swiss franc was treated as safe haven. With the franc's depreciation, one more shelter disappears and it raises the appeal for gold. Moreover, SNB's aggressive stance increases speculation that other central banks, especially those with virtually zero interest rates -US, Japan and the UK, will engage more in quantitative easing measures.

The dollar's retreat was also positive for gold. Last week, the dollar index slid 3 out of 5 days to close at 87.25. Against the euro, the greenback lost 2% to settle at 1.2927. We expect the gold will strengthen further next week as the FED will likely announce more easing policies in the FOMC meeting next Tuesday. Dollar's weakness was also brought about by increase in inflation expectation (as shown by the chart '10-year TIPS breakeven rate' below) and China's worries on the safety of US T-bonds.

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