Monday, March 16, 2009

Looks like the US/CAD pair is getting tight...

We may be close to a big decision point for the US/Canadian Dollar. I am guessing about three weeks. Our 2 trend lines meet at 1.2916 in this daily chart (clicking on both charts gives you a clearer view):



Here's the weekly, which is much longer term, but it too looks toppy:



The Canadian Dollar is one of the risk appetite currencies. If the dollar does decline against it in the next couple of weeks, it could signify that equities will continue it's rise here...even though I think it is just a bear mkt. rally. I doubt highly that we are not going to retest the lows we made a couple of weeks ago.

On the news front, it is quite likely that the mark-to-market rule will be changed. If this happens, banks and insurance companies will be allowed to determine the value of its toxic assets (which have no market now) based on how they feel the assets will perform in the future. This could be quite bullish for equities, even though we will have less transparency and more unknowns...which is what got this economy in trouble in the first place.


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