Friday, July 3, 2009

The case against the Euro continues

Went long the Euro/Yen, and got stopped out. Finally I start to see the bulls point of view...take a risk trade...and equities are creamed. That was my punishment for being seduced by all the optimistic shills on CNBC!

More and more, fundamental evidence against Europe coming out of this recession
anytime soon is becoming a fairy tale. Sure, I could always play a contrarian position and buy the Euro, but why...because it's opposite of what the herd will do? I don't think so. The charts show that the Euro pairs are precarious at best and, if you use Bob Iaccino's strategy of closes below trendlines on a four hour chart, the DOW has already cracked.

The DOW chart below seems to have broken a trendline back to the beginning of March AND the neckline of a significant head and shoulders formation (8300.)(Clicking on the charts give you clearer views):

Now, since being stopped out in the trade above, I became short the Canadian Dollar/Yen in a couple of accounts...because of the significant break of a trendline we discussed days ago. This pair, along with the Euro/Yen or Euro/Dollar and equities, is a risk trade (when you are long,) so there are definitely signs of cracks. (At the bottom of this post, you will see the link to Adam's new bearish video on the S+P.)

The chart below shows the Euro right at critical support going back months. Look how the last bar closed...closed off its low...but weak nonetheless.

We basically have the same thing going on in the Eur/Yen.

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