Sunday, August 9, 2009

And now...a case for the bears

I think thet the breakout in the US/YEN is very bullish for equities, but I just finished reading Jack Steiman's weekend analysis of equities and he points out some dangerous points to watch. (Could this be a false breakout in this pair?)

We all know the dollar has taken a beating and is obviously oversold...and below is a chart that Jack drew which is worth watching. See the killer wedge in this Dollar ETF? If it bounces out of that, equities could be history, at least for now...and so could Gold:

The positive divergence in the MACD is very telling as well. Let's put it this way...I don't do equities, but I do trade Gold. As I wrote the other day, I sold my Gold position because of its own wedge and I would look for a pullback to get in again.

Jack Steiman is a good chartist (and doesn't pay me to say that!) At the same time he drew the above, he also drew this chart which has two divergences including one on the stochastic...NEGATIVE:

























p.s. Core Machinery Orders for Japan comes out this evening. According to Forex Factory, the estimate is for 2.8% growth this month. Will the Yen continue to do badly against the Dollar if this percentage is higher?

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