Prediction: The rally is probably over!

...there, I said it!

For you 'equists' out there (is that a word?), I hope I'm wrong...but there is a lot of evidence that is pointing to a correction from here, and I want to show you some things that I have found.

I mean, it's bound to happen, right? We've come so far and it's not healthy investing in a market that is obviously overbought. Unwind those oscillators, darn it!

Reason 1, the trade triangles tell all

One of the biggest reasons that this account is doing so well is because of the Trade Triangles of Market Club. I often post my statements on this blog, and the triangles are a lot to do with their great success.

Check out the DOW chart I drew in Market Club. I went back to October 2008 because that is the Dow's all time high. In July, there was a green weekly triangle issued BUT, I suspect we will get a red DOWN triangle issued soon (clicking on the charts give you a clearer view):

Notice how far it retraced and how it seems to be stopping at the 38% Fibonacci line. Now in this next chart, I went closeup. Take a look at the MACD and see how it is crossing:

Reason 2, Dollar inverse Head and Shoulders?

I showed you a chart of a Dollar ETF that Jack Steiman drew, last weekend. You'll see that we are due for a breakout of some sort. Ok...now take a look at the following chart from Action Forex. See the inverse head and shoulders?:

Reason 3: Where's the inflation?

(fundamental)

(I am short 1/3 of a lot of Gold.) The Fed kept rates at 0-0.25%, which was expected. Normally, the Fed would actively try to maintain a specific rate of inflation, usually 3-4%. Now, obviously, the goal is to make it cheap to borrow. If rates continue to stay here, I would suggest that, at least for now, inflation is low, and it may be a while before Gold breaks $1000.

Consumer consumption is weak, unfortunately...because I have my own retail business. And CPI had its biggest decline in 60 years.

(technical)

Are commodities going to keep moving up? Well, here's another DOWN trade triangle issued by Market Club, this time for the CRB index. Also note the MACD about to cross. I'm not sure the exact percentage of Gold in this, but I think it's around 12% (clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

Reason 4: The 10 Year Treasury

It looks like the Dollar has based here. There are a few charts to show you, but the most significant is the 10 Year Yield chart:

Notice the top trend line. It just looks like we have hit a high in the 10 year yield. I don't trade this, but, to be safe, if there is a close below 3 1/4%, you can see treasuries rising from here, which will push the Dollar up. If the Dollar is done with it's correction, we will see equities and Gold go down.