For a relative or a good friend

Here is a post I wrote at the beginning of April about making a trade and then forgetting about it for a while. I am more of an intermediate or short term trader...but if I was still a broker, this is the kind of trade that I would have recommended just as much as an equity trade.

The pair I suggested going long in was the CAD/YEN. On April 3, the pair was at 81.48. Today it's at 88 (clicking on the chart gives you a clearer view):

Well, I got another one. It's tough for me to not watch my trades, so it's not my cup of tea (there's always going to be whipsawing.)

It's also tough to not close a position that's very profitable...but if your wife, friend, relative wants to sock a little away for 4 months, not watch their account every day, go find an ETF that reflects the Reuters CRB index (Commodity Research Bureau). Here is a video that is similar to the one on Crude Oil a couple of posts ago...and rightly so, because oil is part of the index...and this is just as likely to be profitable as the trade above was.

Thanks to traders like Adam in the above video, my accounts are doing extremely well.

Don't Be Crazy!

I'm in this private chatroom sometimes. There are successful traders, not-so-successful traders, new traders and experienced traders. I see how some of these folks react to profits and losses and it's obvious that the mentality for trading is just not there with everyone.

Not to be a snob or anything (I don't know an eighth of what someone like Meredith Whitney or Bill Gross know,) but I do know that you have to have the correct mentality to trade.

So, if you think you could use some trading-attitude adjustment, check out this great essay (short pdf) by Bradley Gariess.

A little more on Crude Oil

Here are a couple of images from Adam's short video on crude oil. The first image suggests that we will have a little correction from here because the breakout in the Head and Shoulders has been exhausted.

BUT the second picture (featuring Fibonnaci retracement lines) suggests that, even if there is a pullback, we will see at least $82. (Clicking on the charts give you clearer views):

So basically, we'll be paying more to drive (summer demand,) but should you be long in crude it might be prudent to take half off the table.

New trades

I made a trade based on overbought equity markets and a trade that Trader Outlook made in their account...

This was the start of the recovery from yesterday's massacre. I only did a half position because it's Friday, but the comeback is on!

Great part about trading with rules and specific S/L's and Profit points, is that you will usually end up your trading month or quarter very much in the positive. The Euro/US trade that we lost on yesterday was because of a mistake. That happens, unfortunately. Anyway, accounts are still doing amazing.

Must see crude video

Paying much more at the pump? I know I am...

Anyway, here's a new short video from Adam on crude that you need to see.

You saw the account numbers from the last post and Adam has a lot to do with it. (Regular readers of the blog know I use 7 or 8 different indicators to help me with my trading.)

Account updates for all accounts

My main Forex account is up about 72% since the beginning of January. I sold my Gold in the 960's and repurchased it at around 948 and it is in the new account at the bottom.

My intermediate Forex account, which is up 16% since January (Zip file.)

My options and equity account, which are titled in my children's names, so I can only recreate the trades.

Here are the account particulars:
--My Sprint trade (which I closed at around 13% profit)
--My Zion Bank trade. (26% profit)
--The Gold puts purchased to protect my long term gold position have expired with a $3000 loss.
--The Puts I bought (and sold) to protect my gold, the first time around. ($11,000 profit)

and lastly, the new account I just opened up specifically for Trader Outlook. Looks pretty ugly right now, but I know it will turn around...you will be witnesses! Bob I's trading group made the exact same trades and even the best traders have days like yesterday.

(I also own: S+P puts which are significantly down, but don't expire until June 20.)

These days happen!

Two trades and neither did well. As a trader, I know these days happen, but that doesn't mean I have to be thrilled.

I will post an update on all my accounts today...the value will still be +90% even after today's massacre.

Probably won't do much over the weekend, but stay tuned.

New Trades

New trades made:

1 Lot Long EUR/USD @ 1.41214
Target is 1.4194
S/L is 1.3910

1 Lot Long Sterling/USD @ 1.65791
Target is 1.66610
S/L is 1.6410

He's on TV

If you want to see the founder of my newest trading indicator, he is on CNBC @ 11:05 today. Bob is the reason I opened up a new intermediate account, because he is longer term and scalping takes too much time!

Bollinger Bands

I have been saying for weeks that this market is overdone. Now, if you know how Bollinger Bands work, the longer they are narrow, the bigger chance for a HUGE move.

Here's what Larry Levin wrote:

Today began the S&P500 futures roll over. This is when traders switch from June (the current contract) to the next contract month, which is September. Stock futures trade quarterly. Please switch all of your charts this evening for tomorrow's trade.

Roll over is normally an unfriendly trading environment because traders gradually switch from June to September. With volume spread between two contracts, we normally see small choppy ranges. Today, however, it was as if there was no roll over at all: the market fell apart (early).

What made today different? My guess is that the market internals simply called for a big move today. We were ready for it - roll over or not. Over the last several days our Notes from the Pit noted the extreme fall off of NYSE volume. During this decrease of volume, however, prices continued to rise and the value area shrank. Moreover, yesterday's range was extremely small.

Put all of that together and we strongly believed the odds favored a very large move today and should have been down.

What happens next? We'll do our best to inform you in Notes from the Pit and the virtual trading room but something odd is brewing for sure. From today's Notes: "Although today was a great breakout trend day, the market came back strong to close almost unchanged again. This makes 7 out of the last 8 consecutive days almost unchanged - amazing. There must be a LARGER breakout soon. Today's internals are weak, but with the strong close the overall bull trend is intact. Be careful."

Said another way, the market has been churning in about a 30-point range for almost two trading weeks and that just can't last much longer.

New Trade

The other name for FX Membership is Trader Outlook...and that is what we will be calling them now.

The newest recommendation was to go long US/YEN if we closed above 97.92 on the 4H chart. I agreed and went long 1 Lot with a stop @97.20. My target is 98.79.

Guys...this trader is a lot smarter then me...7 days for $7, is worth it. I opened a new intermediate acccount and this trade is the first one...(up about $400)

Why We're On A Major Roll

If you've been following along...you'll notice that some of my profits have been much bigger. FX Membership has been largely responsible for that (recently.)

They are just another weapon in my arsenal...and I was re-listening to today's trade webinar, and realized that the biggest reason for Bob's success is because he diversifies his trades (not because he is on CNBC a lot!) He watches 8 or 9 pairs and, combined, and much, much more then often there seems to be a profit or a negligible loss. because of cumulative pips.

Take a look at a screenshot of a recent webinar he did (clicking on the image gives you a clearer view):

This is done on a daily basis and they are NOT JUST RECOMMENDATIONS! Bob's trading group prepares for/makes the exact same trades that they recommend us to prepare for and make. They do unbelievably well...and there are quite a few times where they have no losing trades.

However that is not the point of this blog entry. FX Membership works if you adhere to the same rules that Bob's company does. e.g. sometimes he'll say that they will only enter a trade if there is a close below a specific price...but on the 4 hour chart, not just an hourly.

I tried them out for 7 days for $7...and then was hooked. My Market Club helps me with trend if I want to do some confirming...or I will just stare at charts (which I find fun.)

See my account's success again. (The webinar is every morning and lasts about 30+ minutes. Very thorough too.)