Will the Dollar take a breather before it continues up?

..and it will continue (he says humbly.) Actually, the intermediate charts show it quite clearly. I wrote this post last Tuesday. The Euro spot just looks weak and the Greenback spot doesn't. Logic suggests that when you pair the two together you will have a down Euro/Greenback...that was the reason for the good week we had, albeit late.

The great part about the trade triangles is that they provide me a weekly and daily trend...extremely important. However, there is always going to be trading against the trend. Which is why you might check out what Todd Gordon of Forex.com wrote and charted below. Todd is one of the few technicians I listen to, because if I am going to be wrong, I want me to be the problem:

The 240 min EURUSD chart paints the same picture. The move lower from 1.3737 in favor of the dollar does not look impulsive either. It looks more like a 4th wave correction that could find support at the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3247. If 1.3250 holds the market, I believe we have a final push higher in EURUSD into 1.3900 before the real dollar buying begins in wave III. Should this play out, we have higher equities, higher EURUSD, and a higher USDJPY for the next few weeks before the next round of disaster economic data emerges, sending us back toward the equity lows.

Now, I drew my own chart, and I don't think we have hit 38% retracement yet. I am also not convinced that Todd is right here (yet) because I feel that we have big news coming soon and that will drive this pair down sooner then later...guess we will see:

HOWEVER...1.3250 is a Fibonnacci level...which means that other traders will also be using that level to make trading decisions. So whether Todd is right or wrong, you should always have other indicators to confirm or reject. I have very expensive software that determines, short term (15 minutes to 8 hours,) what the big money is doing and I will make trades accordingly at this price.