Friday, April 10, 2009

Extremely conflicting indicators

The other day I felt that the CAD/YEN was a great intermediate trade. This is one of the pairs that totally defies my bearish view of equities, because the Canadian Dollar is a higher interest currency, and therefore a better place for people to put their money when they feel the bullish sentiments of all the 'riskier' markets e.g. equities.

(Not to mention that the low interest Yen is a place where people want to put their money when they are risk adverse.)

If you are bullish about equities, this is a pretty good signal, at least short term that they are continuing up. I charted this out manually. Below that is the way the pattern is supposed to look, so you judge...

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