Friday, April 10, 2009

Equities again

I read Jack Steiman a lot...and here's what he says about equities (S+P):

845 is now strong support down to 813. I do not expect the 813 level to be tested until we see 875. I don't think we'll go below 845 either until we get there. It could but the breach would be minimal in all likelihood. Once at 875 I warn you the easy money has been made overall. It doesn't mean the rally is over but the easiest part will have been used up. Only a loss of 800 ends this rally for the short term. If we get to 875 I'll be looking at 813 as definitive support. The next strong opportunity for buying will come off the 875 pullback so if you haven't done much yet, there should be another chance in time.

Over the years, I have learned a lot from him about how to read price levels, and he knows what he is talking about. However, even though he trades on both sides of the market, he has always seemed more a bull then a bear to me.

(I agree that the market finishing at it's high is strong...I just can't see us staying above 800 yet.) I will watch the VIX and my guess is that we open Monday higher, and then start our retreat.

Here are Jack's charts of swingtradeonline.com and he does make a compelling case for the bullish way.

...but then, we have a video with Adam saying it is going the other way and he visually shows you why. Guess that's why there are bulls and bears...BUT Adam's trade triangles have been a very important indicator from my trading arsenal (my accounts are up over 70% since Jan.)

Now comes the Greenback research! Let's see what we find that confirms a continued equity rally or argues against it. (Isn't this fun?)

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