Thursday, April 9, 2009

So...why all the games?

The other day, after watching Trichet's news conference, I got a little upset. I mean, if people are tuning in to see what you have to say...then just say it! Why the games? I guess he lost his voice until today:

The euro has come under aggressive selling pressure as the European Central Bank leans closer to Quantitative Easing. This morning, ECB President Trichet basically told the market that interest rates are headed to 1 percent while Governing Council Member Nowotny said that the central bank could start buying debt to ease the credit markets. Wellink added his 2 cents by warning that inflation could turn negative for a couple of months. The ECB is only making these clearly dovish comments because they want to send a message to the markets. In general, they like to prepare the markets for any major changes in monetary policy so as to reduce volatility when the actual announcement is made. Therefore the gradual decline in the euro over the past week is probably exactly what they were hoping for. The European Central Bank released their April monthly bulletin this morning and unsurprisingly the report repeated the same bearish message contained in the press conference given by Trichet following the most recent ECB meeting. We continue to expect the euro to underperform other major currencies ahead of the May ECB meeting.

This is why you have to know what you are doing with currency trading. The above suggests why my EUR/USD shorts were in such a precarious position for a while. They became profitable because the usually hawkish Trichet lived up to his reputation.

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